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NewsSaturday, August 11, 2007 10:12 PM CDT
Iowa poll reshapes GOP field
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AMES, Iowa -- Officially, it’s meaningless. No delegates were won or lost, but a straw poll of Iowa Republicans Saturday threatened to shake up the nomination campaign as it enters the fall run-up to the caucus and primary voting in January.

The event appeared to confirm the status of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as a leader for his party’s nomination, gave former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee a leg up, and was likely to create pressure on two candidates to get out of the race -- former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson and Rep. Duncan Hunter of California.

The political fallout magnified the results of an event that drew a surprisingly low turnout of the state’s Republicans.

Just 14,302 people cast votes at the straw poll -- 2.5 percent of the state’s registered Republicans and 9,000 fewer than participated in the last straw poll in 1999.

Still, all but three of the campaigns spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to win bragging rights from the results that they can use to raise more money, or avoid the disappointment that will dry up contributions and force them out of the race. Four candidates dropped out within weeks of the 1999 straw poll.

Romney claimed a solid win with 31.5 percent of the vote.

It was stronger than his support statewide -- which averages about 25 percent -- but about what might be expected given the fact that he outspent rivals by a large margin and competed without his strongest rival, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

“He won a decent victory against a weak field,” said Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University in Des Moines.

Huckabee got what he was looking for, finishing seconds and edging out his chief rival for the support of social conservatives, Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas.

While Huckabee could not claim a decisive win, he did edge Brownback despite Brownback’s more expensive and visible campaign at the straw poll event.

Two candidates with niche messages finished fourth and fifth -- Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado, the choice of voters most upset with illegal immigration, and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, the choice of libertarian minded Republicans.

For two others -- former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson and Rep. Duncan Hunter of California -- their poor finish could spell trouble.

Thompson finished sixth with 7.3 percent of the vote.

Thompson’s campaign on his record of reforming welfare and cutting taxes as governor and a strong message of preventive health care has not caught on with Republican voters. His campaign manager warned before the vote that Thompson “has made it clear that if he doesn’t finish first or second this week in Ames, Iowa, at the straw poll, he will not go on in this race.”

Rep. Duncan Hunter of California finished ninth with 1.2 percent. Hunter’s message of strong support for the military and support for gun owners has not distinguished him from the field.

Three candidates who did not compete for votes at the event did not fare well with the small crowd.

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson finished seventh; Giuliani finished eighth and Sen. John McCain of Arizona finished tenth.

A blend of speeches and carnival-like entertainment, the straw poll was really a fund raising event for the Iowa state Republican Party. Anyone who contributed $35 could cast a vote and many of the campaigns bought tickets for their supporters.

“I think I can do my campaign and me personally better by being here in New Hampshire, talking to people, having the town hall meetings, and responding to their questions and concerns,” McCain said during a stop Saturday in New Hampshire.

The event at times took on the air of a Christian religious revival, alternately uplifting and threatening.

Brownback led supporters in prayer in sweltering heat under a white canvas tent. Huckabee jokingly cited a Biblical call for endurance in urging people to stick around for a second performance of his rock band.

On the darker side, a group identifying itself as Iowa-based U.S. Christians for Truth distributed pamphlets attacking Romney for being a Mormon.

“We strongly believe that Jesus Christ, if he were alive in the flesh and voted, would never vote for Mitt Romney under any circumstances. Mitt Romney represents Mormonism which is counterfeit Christianity, a cult,” said the pamphlet.

The group also criticized divorced Republicans including Giuliani, McCain, Fred Thompson because “they can NEVER make a strong case for strong families or for strong Christian values.”

(c) 2007, McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

Take a look
Republican presidential hopeful former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney waves to supporters after being declared the winner of the Iowa Straw Poll, Saturday, Aug. 11, 2007, in Ames, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
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Reader comments on this story - 26 total

Note: All views and opinions expressed in reader comments are solely those of the individual submitting the comment, and not those of the Pantagraph or its staff.

What's happening? wrote on Aug 19, 2007 2:15 PM:

" If there are two lights in a dark room and we turn them both on it is easy to see which lamp puts out the best light. It isn't necessary to put down other candidates to attempt to prove yours is better. Put downs only make me think that maybe the candidate you are supporting may not be the brightest lamp. "

To HUH wrote on Aug 16, 2007 10:14 PM:

" Mitt Romney won IL straw poll...GAG? I think not! :) "

huh? wrote on Aug 13, 2007 3:29 PM:

" Mitt Romney? *GAG* "

Kapinni wrote on Aug 13, 2007 9:10 AM:

" RON PAUL??? *GAG* "

Scott wrote on Aug 12, 2007 11:27 PM:

" I don't understand the people who want to completely ignore these Straw Poll results. Yes, we all know they're not scientific, but we also know that this group is probably a closer indication of who will actually show up to vote in the primaries than the "random" sample that telephone polls bring. It's meaningless to ask questions of uninformed voters this early in a campaign. At least the people voting at the Straw Poll have listened to the speeches and thought about the campaign. In those ways, this vote is more relevant than the so-called scientific polls. "

OGS Why Mitt Romney is BAD wrote on Aug 12, 2007 8:33 PM:

" If this doesn't convince you, nothing will. Romney is a member of the Council for Foreign Relations (CFR) which supports the North American Union. Let me tell you how the NAU works. First NAFTA moves millions of Amercia's jobs to cheap overseas (slave wage) labor. Bush has already signed the Security Prosperity Partnership as the USA, Canada, & Mexico begin it's preparation of working as one. Next they need pass amnesty for illegals. After that comes the Trans Texas Corridor (Super HiWay) which will be owned by a Spanish company that will charge us a toll. Then comes the North American Union which will destroy what is left of our Constitution and our Bill of Rights because the NAU means that USA, Mexico, & Canada become one sovereign country. Then celebrating Independence Day on July 4th, just won't make any sense any more, will it? That is just the tip of the iceberg as to why Romney stinks. Need more? Google it. No Mitt, no McCain, no Rudy, no Obama, no Queen Hillary. Vote for the only candidate that has NOT sold out America to special interests. Vote for Ron Paul for 2008 President. "

TO: :-0 wrote on Aug 12, 2007 7:31 PM:

" Can you tell us why you think Mitt is so horrible? "

njriverman wrote on Aug 12, 2007 7:14 PM:

" Help demand Ron Paul on EVENTFUL! Thanks! "

Meaningless wrote on Aug 12, 2007 5:16 PM:

" I used to live in iowa. People who live there generally have no idea of how the world really works. When they installed left turning lanes on the streets (in the 1990s), people feared them and wouldn't use them for months until they were convinced their cars weren't going to be sucked into a black hole if they drove into such a lane. I recommend we pay no attention whatsoever to what the iowans are saying. "

:-0 wrote on Aug 12, 2007 5:02 PM:

" What a horrible person to even think of as president. I hope Mitt has a heart attack churning butter... "

re:IndepThinker wrote on Aug 12, 2007 2:56 PM:

" Oh using that logic Mitt paid for 10,000 tickets for voters and only got 4,200 some odd votes. That doesn’t add up; also, he didn’t just bus people there, he had golf carts to shuttle people around, and spent the most on his tent setup with a rock climbing wall and a little fairground. Sounds like he is buying votes. If you don’t like ron paul, well, you don’t like freedom then. "

??? wrote on Aug 12, 2007 2:27 PM:

" re:IndepThinker...Seems to me more than two people are writing about Dr. Ron Paul. He was cast at about 1-2 percent, but garnered almost 10 percent (He was only in Iowa for a week and got big support, unlike all the others who lived there for the past 2-3 months). Me thinks these gallop polls that only call people with landlines are unusually bias, and suited for a simple thinker like yourself. Dig a little deeper, and in a few more months, Ron Paul will be gaining people, while the warmongers of Guiliani, Mitt, McCain and Clinton will just hold on to support. Anyone that thinks Ron Paul is a joke anymore should stop watching the mainstream media and just look at the observable facts. I don’t and can’t understand why any American would hate someone who protects the constitution, wants to end the war, and understands a sound money policy… "

It's sad wrote on Aug 12, 2007 12:51 PM:

" that the Republican Party is so desperate for someone that they are turning to Fred thompson. Other than acting and a mediocre political career what has he done? I know, you're gonna say the same thing about Obama, but I feel the same way about him, he hasn't done anything. Neither of them should be president. It's time to get someone who's qualified for the job, Republican, Democrat, or Independent, it doesn;t matter. "

IndepThinker wrote on Aug 12, 2007 12:01 PM:

" Why are the same two people writing about Ron Paul under different user names? Results for Mitt Romney in the Straw Poll were similar to results for state-wide scientific telephone surveys. He is the top candidate for good reason. Romney would have won the straw poll even without offering to bus people in. He is a great candidate that despite the opposition and personal attacks wreaking of religious bigotry is souring above the rest of the political "pygmies." "

Angry Moderate wrote on Aug 12, 2007 11:04 AM:

" Anyone who paid $35 could cast a vote...if that isn't self-selection bias, I don't know what is. I suppose this result says a bit about who can do the best fundraising, but it's irresponsible for the media to cast this in the same light as a scientific poll. "

Paul wrote on Aug 12, 2007 10:56 AM:

" He may not have shown well but for me, the non-declared candidate seemed to do pretty well. I'm going for FRED. www.Californiaforthompson.com RUN FRED RUN "

Carson wrote on Aug 12, 2007 10:17 AM:

" I am proud to be an American when I see the way the straw poll seemed to cut through some of the hype created by the media in favor of the over financed candidates. Back about 1915 we had a politician named Woodrow Wilson that accepted a bribe to create the Federal Reserve. They were a group of very powerful bankers and businessmen from around the world at the time. Through the monopoly of being the source of our money and by being outside of our government, or paying any taxes, they have built up a fortune that, I believe, includes owning most of the politicians of the world. It is going to take a determined, We the People, to restore law and order in our government before we can restore law and order in our once great nation. "I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be...snip -Woodrow Wilson "

Missing persons wrote on Aug 12, 2007 10:12 AM:

" If 33,000 people show up to vote and they only count a little over 14,000 votes, what happened to the othe 19,000 people who bought a ticket to vote? Did they decide that spending money to go make themselves heard wasn't really worth it? Also, didn't they use the same machines that have a reputation of being faulty? Things just don't add up here. Romney is a hack and no more in support of American prosperity then that Nazi Bush. "

??? wrote on Aug 12, 2007 9:55 AM:

" Ron Paul only spent 1 week in Iowa campaigning and received 5th place. All the other candidates had spent nearly a month in Iowa. This is a very good sign. I also noticed last night on Fox news, and CNN not even a mention of Dr. Paul. He barley registers on the fixed Gallup poll, but when it comes to real poll, he does register. I am more and more convinced there is some effort to silence this man. "

un huh wrote on Aug 12, 2007 9:07 AM:

" Speaking of money, where would Hillary be without her warchest of money? That is what will get her votes. Mostly Hollywood and other fat cat money while she claims the Republicans have all the money. Do they loan it to the Democrats? And of course, money gets coverage for Obama too. Do the GOP loan it too? Or is what they say about rich republicans as much of baloney as everything else. "

Kapinni wrote on Aug 12, 2007 8:51 AM:

" Woo-hoo Romney! Keep on going! You are what this country needs! "

Dave wrote on Aug 12, 2007 8:22 AM:

" When the story broke last night on AOL news, they didn't even mention Ron Paul in thier coverage. EVERY other candidate was mentioned in regards to his finish. Not Paul! Someone convince me there isn't some sort of orchestrated effort on someones part to completely ignore him. Probably hoping he will go away. But I don't believe he will. "

OGS and the numbers are... wrote on Aug 12, 2007 3:15 AM:

" ...1st Mitt Romney 4516, 2nd Mike Huckabee 2587, 3rd Sam Brownback 2192, 4th Tom Tancredo 1961, 5th Ron Paul 1305, 6th Tommy Thompson 1039, ...8th Rudy Guiliani 183, ...10th John McCain 101. Romney spent about $2000 per vote serving filet mignon at his tent and Ron Paul spent about $200 per vote serving hot dogs and corn on the cob. Give me a candidate that doesn't spent foolish money and I'll give you an AMerica that is finally on the right track. Vote Ron Paul for 2008 President. Shunned by mainstream media throughout the campaign, Ron Paul still finishes with 9.1% of the vote! The guy would win hands down if his ideals were given the same coverages as neo-cons such as Romney, Rudy, & McCain. No doubt about it! "

The Indefatigable Fachna wrote on Aug 12, 2007 12:29 AM:

" As I've said before, a richness of Republican embarrassments vs. an embarrassment of Democratic riches. "

A Bible thumper wrote on Aug 12, 2007 12:04 AM:

" who doesn't believe in evolution comes in second? What is this country coming to? "

American Outrage wrote on Aug 11, 2007 11:56 PM:

" Out of the 33,000 that attended, less then half voted? The majority of people there had a Ron Paul shirt or button, and yet he barely registers on the ballot. Over 15,000 people who showed up to this thing and did not vote. Funny how if those people would've voted for one candidate it would be at over 60 percent, ironicly thats the same percentage as the web polls show for Dr. Paul. Finally, the makers of those fine faulty machines(which messed up again tonight) are exclusively supporting Romney. I'm feeling ill. Stay in Dr. Paul! America still needs you even though the fascist are trying to rob more from liberty. "

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