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NOAA blames hot year on greenhouse gases
By Randloph E. Schmid
Associated Press
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WASHINGTON, D.C. -- "We have met the enemy, and he is us," the comic-strip character Pogo said decades ago. A new analysis of last year's near-record temperatures in the United States suggests he was right.

Warming caused by human activity was the biggest factor in the high temperatures recorded in 2006, according to a report by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The analysis, released Tuesday, is being published in the September issue of Geophysical Research Letters, published by the American Geophysical Union.

In January, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center reported that 2006 was the warmest year on record over the 48 contiguous states with an average temperature 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal and 0.07 degree warmer than 1998, the previous warmest year on record.

In May, however, NOAA revised the 2006 ranking to the second warmest year after updated statistics showed the year was actually .08 F cooler than 1998.

At the time the agency said it was not clear how much of the warming was a result of greenhouse-gas induced climate change and how much resulted from the El Nino warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that was under way.

"We wanted to find out whether it was pure coincidence that the two warmest years on record both coincided with El Nino events," Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., said in a statement.

His study looked at the effects of El Nino in the past as well as the effects of the release of gases such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by human industrial activities.

The analysis of past El Nino events in the 20th century found that the result was a slightly colder than normal annual average temperature over the 48 contiguous states.

To double check that, the researchers conducted two sets of 50-year computer simulations of U.S. climate, with and without the influence of El Nino. They again found a slight cooling across the nation when El Nino was present.

Then they looked at the effect of the increased greenhouse gases - which are given that name because they can help trap heat from the sun somewhat like a greenhouse traps heat.

They ran 42 different tests using complex computer models to simulate changes in the atmosphere under various conditions and concluded that the "2006 warmth was primarily due to human influences."

While Hoerling's study focused on the United States, NOAA also tracks world climate. Worldwide, 2005 was the warmest year on record, topping 1998, according to the agency.

The research was supported by NOAA's office of Global Programs.

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Reader comments on this story - 17 total

Note: All views and opinions expressed in reader comments are solely those of the individual submitting the comment, and not those of the Pantagraph or its staff.

Brian Olson wrote on Sep 19, 2007 10:30 AM:

" Scientist with integrity here (who is not getting money from the government to "study" global warming). I am glad to see that the sham of global warming is becoming more obvious to the public. What is a "scientific concensus"? Scientists NEVER vote on facts. Where is the data? They cite their climate models as data!!? Uh uh, girl. They did not just do that. (Yes, some of us scientists have a sense of humor.) "

JD wrote on Aug 29, 2007 9:32 PM:

" This whole greenhouse gas/global warming is the biggest sham ever. 'Scientists' have set it up so that regardless of what happens, they can link it to the greenhouse effect. Just 25 years ago, these same 'scientists' were screaming we were heading into an ice age. People need to quit listening to 'scientists' unless they have actual empirical data, because without that data the 'scientists' was just speculating. "

Meg wrote on Aug 29, 2007 2:57 PM:

" I despise the cold, but I really hope this winter is miserably chilly. Bring out the global cooling fanatics for once, and give Gore's cult a rest. Oh yeah, I voted for Bush twice too. Rock on. "

Crybaby wrote on Aug 29, 2007 1:53 PM:

" God bless you, "B/N Republican". "

BN Republican wrote on Aug 29, 2007 11:50 AM:

" No such thing. Scientists are always lying and blaspheming. The oil companies say there's no global warming. Who are you going to believe? An atheist scientist or a blessed wealthy businessman? Its a hot year because God wants it to be a hot year. That's all we need to know. "

Attn: Rock Fan wrote on Aug 29, 2007 11:41 AM:

" I voted for him twice and would vote for him to get a third term if it were legal. Vast Right Wing Conspirators, UNITE!!! "

Elsie & Elmer Holstein-Friesian wrote on Aug 29, 2007 10:48 AM:

" PHFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFTTTTTT!!!!!!! "

TO: ROck Fan wrote on Aug 29, 2007 10:47 AM:

" I voted for him, twice. "

I Blame it on... wrote on Aug 29, 2007 10:46 AM:

" "Hot Rod's" hot air. "

Rock Fan wrote on Aug 29, 2007 10:27 AM:

" The Ice Road in the Northwest Territories is usually open for 70 days. This past winter it closed after just 45 days and returned to an open water lake. "

bert wrote on Aug 29, 2007 10:19 AM:

" ha ha.....they can't even get a forecast right most of the time but this info is a sure thing......just likes NASA's numbers the Gorebot bases everything on....except this week NASA said oops and changed them because of a math error.......please don't let the facts get in the way of a good hysteria "

They buried the lead! wrote on Aug 29, 2007 10:04 AM:

" "The analysis of past El Nino events in the 20th century found that the result was a slightly colder than normal annual average temperature over the 48 contiguous states." "

NOAA wrote on Aug 29, 2007 10:04 AM:

" Has drunk the Kool-Aid! Help us all... "

Thanks fantastic wrote on Aug 29, 2007 9:49 AM:

" So why was it so hot in the '30s? Or a thousand years ago (they called it 'Greenland' for a reason). Or, conversely, so cold in 2004? No easy answer for that? Give it up. Climate change happens all the time, it just happens to be politically popular now. Something will take its place 20 years from now, when they find there's no money to be made off it. "

... wrote on Aug 29, 2007 9:33 AM:

" The sky is falling. Didn't NOAA warn us 30 years ago about global cooling and the coming of another ice age? "

Dark Knight wrote on Aug 29, 2007 9:19 AM:

" What a crock! "

Rock Fan wrote on Aug 29, 2007 9:13 AM:

" Bush wrong again, he should have been a comedian. Oh, the suffering he has caused through his ignorance and greed isn't funny is it? When he was elected it seemed you couldn't find a person in this town who didn't vote for him. Now you can't find anyone who admits they did. Thanks for the memories! "
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