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Clinton could lose nomination - if ...
By Nedra Pickler
Associated Press
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WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Memo to the Democratic presidential candidates: You can still beat Hillary Rodham Clinton, but you better act fast.

The former first lady looks more likely to win the nomination every day, showing strength in polling, fundraising and setting the campaign agenda.

She's so strong, in fact, that the race has become about her. And Democratic operatives from presidential campaigns past and present say the only way for any other candidate to win the nomination is to make an even stronger case against her.

"If this were a wedding, we'd be at the 'speak now or forever hold your peace' part," said Steve McMahon, who advised Howard Dean in 2004. "If you're a candidate hoping to get past her, the time for nuance and veiled references has passed."

There is always the chance that Clinton could make an error in the next couple of months that would hurt her chances. Some argue that her vote against Iran at a time when anti-war Democrats are concerned about war there has the potential to damage her standing.

But Democratic insiders, including some working on various 2008 campaigns who spoke on condition of anonymity, agree that barring a major stumble, Clinton is all but sure to win the nomination if she wins the opening contest in Iowa. She is polling well in the states that follow, and no one else would be able to challenge her unless an Iowa loss made her look vulnerable.

"If Hillary wins Iowa, she can practically start shopping for a running mate," said California-based Democratic strategist Dan Newman.

But that's a big if. Clinton has called Iowa her "hardest state," and it's the best - some say only - chance her opponents have to get past her.

"At this point the trailing candidates need to not only catch a huge wave, they also need one to crash on top of Hillary," Newman said. "They need to upend the conventional wisdom that is gelling among donors and others that she can't be stopped, and they need to prove it in Iowa."

The most recent polls in the state show a close race among Clinton and fellow Sens. John Edwards and Barack Obama.

Edwards has been making a more vigorous case recently against Clinton's ability to win a general election. He's also led criticisms of her that have been picked up by other candidates - that she's too connected to lobbyists and that her vote to declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization could be a repeat of her mistake in voting for the Iraq war.

Those criticisms haven't hurt her yet, but they could as more people begin to pay closer attention in the closing days of the race. Some advise that the Clinton campaign should consider fighting back against Edwards or anyone else who takes her on so directly.

"While Edwards is attacking her as being unelectable, the GOP is also saying she is polarizing and out of the mainstream," said Donna Brazile, who ran Al Gore's campaign in 2000. "Time to deck them or push back."

Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have been more aggressively criticizing her on foreign policy. Obama says there needs to be a change away from Washington insiders while generally avoiding mention of her name.

And at a time when Obama needs to be winning voters away from Clinton, instead he's been playing defense. Just this week he's been under fire from gay activists who objected to a participant in his gospel concert series, and his campaign agreed to return some donations after The Washington Post reported that they came from children.

Most of those interviewed say Obama needs to get tougher on Clinton.

"I don't buy this `Politics of Hope' means you can't engage the next candidate," said strategist Jamal Simmons. "People want to be hopeful, but people want to know you are tough enough to win and you are tough enough to lead the country."

In comparison to Obama, Simmons said, "people are very clear what John Edwards is running for. He's there fighting for the working man and woman, and he's taking his shots. Even at some times he may seem to the outside world to be too strident and hitting it too hard. But he's hitting, and people respect that."

But some inside the Clinton and Obama camps think it would be a mistake for Obama to go on the attack in a multi-candidate race. They ask: Why not sit back and let Edwards and others try to take her down, while he tries to rise above?

"I think with name ID as high as Senator Clinton's, there is little new information about her that would change voter's minds," said Erik Smith, who worked for Dick Gephardt in 2004. "A candidate can move late in Iowa if making a strong case for themselves as the best candidate to win the general."

That happened in the last Iowa presidential primary. In 2004, Dean was the front-runner, and Gephardt went after him hard. Dean and Gephardt fell into third and fourth place respectively in the caucus, behind John Kerry and Edwards.

"Her opponents will have opportunities to slow her down, but the risks of doing what that will take come at a considerable risk," said Democratic consultant Michael Feldman. "Take Senator Obama, for example. It's hard to slash and burn when you have said that you want to move beyond negative campaigning. He runs a serious risk of undermining his brand."

And there's no indication it would work since she's done well with what's come at her so far. "There is no doubt that she will be tested, but she is running the kind of campaign that indicates her ability to roll through those inevitable challenges," Feldman said.

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Reader comments on this story - 44 total

Note: All views and opinions expressed in reader comments are solely those of the individual submitting the comment, and not those of the Pantagraph or its staff.

To:"One Question" wrote on Oct 26, 2007 8:56 PM:

" How long did it take Bush and Fema to make their way to New Orleans? "

NAWP wrote on Oct 26, 2007 3:54 PM:

" To Huckleberry: Who are these people that have stopped paying their taxes legally and how do I get in touch with them??? If that were the case, I think there would seriously be more people doing that. I definitely would like to check into that!!! "

To: Just wondering... wrote on Oct 26, 2007 3:10 PM:

" I'll take a Republic because then we all have the right to a voice instead of just a select few who "supposably are elected". We have found that democracies can ruled by money leaving the lower class's of society completly ignored because the "leaders" can in no way understand their plite. We should all be able to enjoy free speech (do not kid yourself with saying that we do now) as well as life ,liberty and the pusuite of happiness. "...and to the Republic for which it stands...". Do you remember your pledge of allegiance my fellow Americans? "

Huckleberry wrote on Oct 26, 2007 1:40 PM:

" Ron Paul- great man, defender of the constitution, really understands what's going on. But do you think he would really have a chance if somehow he got in? He claims income tax is illegal, and there has been a lot of debate about that in certain circles and some people have legally stopped paying it. He is not a part of the political machine that is in place. I believe the constitution says that lawyers are not allowed to hold office, but only a handful are not. Hillary's in barring a gigantic goof on her part. "

to Canada wrote on Oct 26, 2007 1:22 PM:

" I completely agree with you, and I also am a woman. I did not trust Bill, and I do not trust Hillary. I seriously hope she does not win the nomination, much less the presidency. "

hillbillary wrote on Oct 26, 2007 1:03 PM:

" does not refer to her being a hillbilly it is a combination of hillary and bill .and just because she was born in illinois does nothing for her rep.as the leader of thios country.and do we need someone in the white house that sounds like she lives in a big scary castle on the hill with flying monkees and a laugh that sends shivers down ones spine . and guess what i didnt vote for our dear theif of a man called rod blowhard .we need to take back this country from the dumbycrats "

to My problem with Hillary wrote on Oct 26, 2007 12:46 PM:

" I can't stand to hear Bush speak... that fake Texas drawl, that insincere smirk, the white powder on his nose... "

Qbama wrote on Oct 26, 2007 12:28 PM:

" Sounds like he running for vice president. "

What's going to happen wrote on Oct 26, 2007 11:29 AM:

" Here's how Hillary's going to win. First, she's going to outraise every democratic candidate. Second, every media outlet is going to splash her name everywhere to help get votes. She'll squeak by, but face an uphill battle in the election. The GOP will end up nominating Rudy, which will hack off all the religious conservatives out there. Someone (possibly Thompson, though I'm not sure. Ron Paul could work too) will enter as a third party candidate, and just like in 1992 when Perot entered, the Clintons will win the White House with less than 50% of the vote. "

NAWP wrote on Oct 26, 2007 11:27 AM:

" Does it really matter anyway?? The individual citizen doesn't "elect" anyone on the presidential scene anyway. The Dems and GOP are going to put in who they want regardless and then it's the Electoral College that ultimately decides the White House. The citizen has been snowballed for so many years that now it's BAU (business as usual). So then - why even vote?? "

My problem with Hillary wrote on Oct 26, 2007 11:26 AM:

" goes beyond politics. I don't think she sounds sincere when she speaks. I cannot get past that. I don't like many of the Republican candidates either, but I heard McCain speak the other day, and I could actually listen to him. Every time I hear Hillary speak it hurts. I would rather Obama get the nom than Hillary, although it hardly matters, I wouldn't vote for either in the General Election. "

to One question to Clinton supporters.. wrote on Oct 26, 2007 10:32 AM:

" I'd take Clinton over Ghouliani because Ghouliani wants a police state. "

TO: RUDY? wrote on Oct 26, 2007 10:12 AM:

" What has he done? Prior to his service as Mayor of NY, it was a CESSPOOL! Crime rates were up (murder at an all time high)and the economy was down. Now look at it. It is one of the most vibrant cities in the country. What has Hill done? NOTHING!!! "

TO:Re: ANTI-CLINTON wrote on Oct 26, 2007 10:09 AM:

" I have given one of my many arguements about Ms. Clinton in my previous post, titled To all Clinton supporters, however anytime I bring up valid points against her the Pantagraph deems them UNVIEWABLE and doesn't post them, although they follow their rules. I feel now would be a great time for a female president, just not one as corrupt as her. Does anyone remember the news story when her and her husband left the whitehouse? How they took furniture that did not belong to them, took all of the lightbulbs and toilet paper, etc... And the fact that the only non allied country that has nukes that can reach us is China and who sold them? MR. Clinton, just the type of people I want leading my country. "

One question to Clinton supporters.. wrote on Oct 26, 2007 9:49 AM:

" Where was she the first 3 weeks after 9/11? It was her state and she didn't even make an appearance until 3 weeks later, While Guilliani was knee deep in concrete rubble. Is this the kind of person you want for a president? Someone who appears close to a month AFTER a disaster like that? "

to now this is scary wrote on Oct 26, 2007 9:43 AM:

" Then nominate Ron Paul. The American people don't want more of the same and if that means going back to a Clinton, so be it. BTW, Ms. Clinton was born in Desplaines, Illinois which is about as far away from hillbilly as you can get. "

Stinko wrote on Oct 26, 2007 9:39 AM:

" Better get used to a female Democrat as president. I know we are in the heart of Republican territory just by reading the posts. Hillary knows politics and you can bet she is not going to make one mistake that would cost her the nomination or the presidency. And by the way, GOP does not spell GOD! "

Rudy? wrote on Oct 26, 2007 9:31 AM:

" Why on earth would anyone elect a former mayor? What has he done lately deserving a presidency? "

Just wondering... wrote on Oct 26, 2007 9:28 AM:

" Do we want to live in a DEMOCRACY or a REPUBLIC? "

Go Clinton!!! wrote on Oct 26, 2007 9:23 AM:

" I, for one, think that Bill Clinton was a good President... despite his "actions on the side". Our economy was in much better shape than it is now. Get Bush out.... and bring on the Clintons!!! It's about time we have a woman in charge to clean up the mess these men have left us in.... ha!! "

R.E.M.E.M.B.E.R. wrote on Oct 26, 2007 9:06 AM:

" For everyone voting for Clinton remember, you voted for Blago and you see what is happening in one state, Clinton will have the whole country for her playgroung. "

to To: B-Town Dem wrote on Oct 26, 2007 8:47 AM:

" That's the trouble when you only talk to people in your conservative church. Get out more. Hillary isn't my first choice, but if she's the nominee, I'll be happy to support her. I certainly like her better than Kerry. "

now this is scary wrote on Oct 26, 2007 8:39 AM:

" its almost as bad as a relecting jfk we dont need the dummycrats in the white hose now .they put this type of propeganda in the news to try and influance the votes .please everyone should think with there minds not their eyes and vote the right way and dont cast a vote for hilbillary.we need to go foward not backwards in this election. "

Help save America! wrote on Oct 26, 2007 8:34 AM:

" Vote Ron Paul in '08. The supposed front runners(they are front runners because fascist big buiseness wants us to beleive it) all want to sell America down the river to the North American Union. Our rights have been traded for priviledges,and only those with lots of money has the priviledge. Help take back our country and republic and look up Ron Paul. Hillary, Obama, Edwards, Guilliani, Romney, Thompson, and many others are bought and paid for by corporate America and do not care about any Americans earning less then 100,000 a year and wants to keep a socialist economy going to protect the modern slave class. "

to: to Hill Spin wrote on Oct 26, 2007 8:32 AM:

" That's hilarious. That's why no one cares about Rudy's filandering. It's so tame compared to his peers. "

T wrote on Oct 26, 2007 7:42 AM:

" Anything except the bible banging conservatives "

to Hill Spin wrote on Oct 26, 2007 6:33 AM:

" We have almost a weekly scandal from the Republicans... you know money "lost" in Iraq plus reports of (R) senators with wide stances and evangelical leaders who do meth and frequent gay prostitutes on the side. The public is immune to scandals at this point, although a sex scandal involving consenting heterosexual adults would be an unusual change given the Republicans' tendencies. "

to Seen this movie wrote on Oct 26, 2007 6:31 AM:

" Sure was. Dean was an excellent candidate, but he didn't kiss the right rear and ABC made sure he lost with his infamous yet overblown scream. Ms. Clinton is in good with Big Biz, so she won't suffer the same fate. "

Yeah right wrote on Oct 26, 2007 6:29 AM:

" Obama had a shot and it seems like he's blown it. Based on experience, especially foreign policy, Richardson is probably the best candidate, but he doesn't have any support. Clinton will be the nominee and unless the Repubs run a nonfascist AKA Ron Paul, they have little chance of winning. But I'm optimistic. The Clinton years were very good for me and many of my friends, all middle class. I look forward to a repeat. "

To: B-Town Dem wrote on Oct 26, 2007 6:00 AM:

" Uh, I have yet to meet or talk to one person who supports Hillary. And if this comment section follows any demographic, your percentages are totally skewed. Time for you to wake up! "

to if wrote on Oct 25, 2007 11:48 PM:

" "If we are lucky, we won't have another stupid republican in office." "

The Right stuff wrote on Oct 25, 2007 11:43 PM:

" Righties: either get over your Hillary Clinton obsession or, if you can, explain in lucid terms your objections to her. And make no mistake, you're obsessed: according to the Pew Research Center, 78% of Republicans can identify Hillary Clinton as the Democratic front-runner, but only 57% can identify their own front-runner (Giuliani). It's a fixation like none other. And hey anti clinton: why is this not the time for a female president (whatever that even means)? "

M wrote on Oct 25, 2007 11:19 PM:

" I don't get it... I haven't even met one person who likes Hilary! OBAMA ALL THE WAY! "

B-town Dem wrote on Oct 25, 2007 11:16 PM:

" No one will stop the Hillary machine. She'll have the majority of the women, 90 percent of the black vote, and at least 45 percent of the men. NO CHANCE for anyone to stop her. Start crying now GOP, you've had your chance. "

Hill Spin wrote on Oct 25, 2007 10:45 PM:

" Is Hill really that popular among Dems, or is this just another spin job of the drive by media? Seems in the same spirit of the 60 Minutes interview with the Clintons prior to the '92 election that made it look like the Clintons had resolved their marital problems; an interview that 60 Minutes producer Don Hewitt proclaimed was the biggest "snow job" he'd ever seen. If you want a weekly-scandal-presidency, vote for Hill. She's already doing a great job of that with her funny money fundraising. "

thats wrote on Oct 25, 2007 9:54 PM:

" Hillaryous.. yuk yuk yuk "

IF wrote on Oct 25, 2007 9:15 PM:

" If we're lucky, she'll lose. "

Seen this movie wrote on Oct 25, 2007 9:02 PM:

" Wasn't Howard Dean unstoppable about this time in 2003? Uh-oh..... "

The Good Bad and Ugly wrote on Oct 25, 2007 8:25 PM:

" of it all is that Clinton would give the GOP the best shot at the white house, but who wants to flirt so dangerously close to such a cataclysmic result? Stop her now now now. "

Whatever! wrote on Oct 25, 2007 8:18 PM:

" I pray everyday that she will just go away! We will be in some serious trouble if she comes to washington....again. What new things can shake down in the oval office? "

Re: Anti-Clinton wrote on Oct 25, 2007 7:58 PM:

" I think you had it right when you said "the GOP has a 'god' shot at the White House. I was a dyed-in-the-wool Republican just like most everyone else around here until the party was taken over by theocrats and became a two issue party; anti-abortion and anti-gay rights. Bush had to make sure he consulted with James Dobson and his ilk before doing anything. Eight years of a White House being run by the Religious Right is enough! It's time for a change. Whether it's Hillary, Obama, Edwards, or whoever, anybody would be better than another theocrat. "

Canada wrote on Oct 25, 2007 7:22 PM:

" Is it time to start packing?!?!?!?!?! Another Clinton in office? I'm a woman and I certainly don't think we need a woman president and CERTAINLY NOT Hilary Clinton. "

anti clinton wrote on Oct 25, 2007 7:03 PM:

" If Hillary takes the nomination, the GOP has a god shot at the White House, now is not the time for a Female President, and for sure not another Clinton. "

Bite... wrote on Oct 25, 2007 6:45 PM:

" your tongue. The GOP wants Hillary! to be the Democratic nominee. Google or Youtube "Hillary Uncensored" after 10/26/07 to see why. "
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