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Ethanol’s growth increases demand

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buy this photo DeWitt county farmers talk about ethanol production, E85 fuels and planned ethanol plants while gathering for coffee at the Tate & Lyle grain elevator in Wapella on Jan. 11, 2007. From left are Pete Toohil, Gordon Douglas, Jim Powers and Steve Davenport. (Pantagraph/Steve Smedley)

BLOOMINGTON - The price of corn was a little more than $3.50 per bushel, a good $1 higher than usual for January. The cost right now is highly fueled by the increased interest in using corn to produce ethanol for energy.

"We're all for it," said farmer Jim Powers as he turned and pointed to the price of corn listed on a wipe-off board in the office at Tate & Lyle Grain in Wapella.

Many local farmers are excited about the prospect of making more money on a clean-burning, renewable fuel that can also reduce the country's dependence on foreign oil. But some, while they're optimistic overall, also have concerns the industry is expanding too fast and there won't be enough corn to meet demands.

Nationwide, 110 ethanol biorefineries exist in 19 states with a capacity to produce more than 5.3 billion gallons of ethanol.

Sixty-three plants and eight expansion projects are set to add nearly 5.4 billion gallons more within the next 18 months, according to the Renewable Fuels Association in Washington, D.C.

Locally, plants are operating in Decatur, Pekin and Peoria, with plants proposed throughout Central Illinois, including Lincoln, San Jose, Hartsburg, Gibson City/Champaign, Streator and Chenoa.

"It's a win-win situation at this point," said Fred Grieder, a corn and soybean farmer in Carlock. "With our surplus of commodities (corn) in recent years, it's refreshing to find a use for them that benefits the country and the farm industry, too."

Interest in ethanol also peaks when gas prices rise, making the fuel more economical. On a recent day when gas prices averaged $1.98, the price of E85 fuel was $1.79. While ethanol prices typically stay lower than gasoline, mileage is also lower with E85 fuel.

"It's a knee-jerk reaction to the $3 gas we saw in July," said Steve Schwoerer, who has a dairy farm and a corn and soybean operation in Bloomington. "I understand that movement, but I think we need to move a little cautiously."

Ethanol tried to make an impact in the 1970s, but operations went broke because gas prices dropped, said Pete Toohill, a farmer in DeWitt County. That could happen again if gas gets cheaper, he said.

Grieder agrees using corn for ethanol is great for the time being, but it's hard to say what may happen in the long-term.

But it is the first step to moving away from petroleum-based gasoline, he said.

And that's high on the priority list for some farmers near Wapella, including Powers. The more ethanol the U.S. can make, the less Americans will be dependent on foreign oil, said Gordon Douglas. But if 85 percent of corn ethanol was used for fuel, it would only supply 10 percent of the country's need, so Americans also need to conserve more, Steve Davenport noted.

As a downside, many livestock farmers worry about using too much corn for ethanol and not having enough for feed.

Once the ethanol is taken out of the corn, a good feed product is left over, Grieder said.

However, that feed product is best for beef and dairy cattle, less so for hogs and poultry, said Randy Winter, an agriculture professor at Illinois State University. Plus, problems with transporting and storing that leftover product still need to be addressed, Winter said.

Even with ethanol production, the country's No. 1 use for corn is livestock feed, Winter said.

Another concern people have about ethanol is it will take away from exports, which historically is the nation's No. 2 use for corn.

The changes are not necessarily good or bad, Winter said. "As in any change, there will be winners and losers. Depending on who you are, you might see that as good or bad."

Ethanol plants could experience a squeeze on profitability with so many new plants, but it's hard to believe all will be built right away, Grieder said.

"It's a supply and demand thing with the corn and with the ethanol," Grieder said. "You could throw in the scenario, if corn prices get too high and ethanol prices get to low, the plants wouldn't be profitable."

Winter said it's probably safe to say all the proposed plants will not be built because they're too close to one another and would cause too much competition for corn.

"I think if all of the plants that have been proposed are built, that would be too many. I think we know that all of them will not be built," Winter said. "In some cases, it might be a little bit of a race to see who gets there first. That would trump, I think, some of the proposals on the board."

Central Illinois has enough corn for one more ethanol plant; two plants within 50 miles of each other would be too many, he said.

But Davenport disagreed; he said the plants aren't going up fast enough.

Farmers across the nation are expected to plant more corn in 2007 to meet an increased demand for ethanol. That decision is simple for some farmers.

"The profitability offered on corn acres is higher than soybeans," said Grieder, who's increased the amount of corn he's planted 50 percent from two years ago.

On the other side of the spectrum, though, is Davenport, who said he plants half corn and half soybeans on his 1,400 acres, and he's not going to change this year.

"We're just in a rotation cycle, and that's what we do," he said. "It averages out."

Farmers who plant more corn are betting prices will go up, but if too much corn is planted, the cost will drop. At the same time, if farmers plant fewer soybean acres, soybean prices will go up because they'll be more in demand, Davenport said.

As for the future, only time will tell when and if corn production for ethanol has really made it as a renewable fuel or if it fails to produce desired results. It will take at least a decade before society knows if it's here to stay, Schwoerer said.

"If we run too fast, when do we run into the wall?" asked Schwoerer. "Maybe the wall's way out there. Maybe we'll never run into it."

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