SAN JOSE, Calif. - Atul Ahuja, 41, bought the fancy new Hewlett-Packard computer in January. His 6-year-old PC at home was headed to the graveyard and he just couldn't delay getting a new one.
But when it came to buying a Blu-ray DVD player, he decided to wait. He'd been coveting one for months to go with his 42-inch plasma TV. But with so few movies available in Blu-ray, and the economy looking shaky, he's going to be patient.
"I'm being a little bit careful," Ahuja said. "I'm thinking twice about things."
And so are many buyers of consumer electronics gear these days. As the economy teeters on recession, shoppers are thinking long and hard about whether this is the right moment to pony up extra money to indulge their gadget lust.
So far, that indecision, or hesitation, hasn't driven spending on consumer gadgets over a cliff. But analysts and companies are clearly expecting consumers to cut back this year on most categories of consumer electronics.
"I'm not convinced that companies are really feeling it," said Rob Enderle, principal analyst of the Enderle Group. "But there's a lot of discussion about how they're going to be feeling it. The outlook has become pretty dismal."
As often happens when the economy is shifting, it's difficult to get a clear read on where it's headed and how fast it's going there. Different data point in directions that seem in conflict, and the numbers around consumer electronics purchases are no different.
Some of the most recent numbers, for instance, don't seem so bad. For instance, according to the Consumer Electronics Association, sales of flat-panel TVs are up 42 percent for the seven weeks of 2008 compared with the same period one year ago.
On the other hand, the stock of Best Buy, one of the leading consumer electronics chain stores, has dropped more than 20 percent this year and three analysts have downgraded the stock over concerns that flat-panel sales will be weak in 2008.
And Apple recently reported strong growth across its business. But its stock has been beaten down this year by about 40 percent after analysts worried that its guidance was weaker than expected.
Perhaps the best snapshot comes from BIGresearch, a consumer marketing data company that does extensive polling over consumers' buying intentions. The company's most recent data shows that in February the percentage of adults planning to make purchases fell from February 2007 in four out of five categories: DVD players, computers, stereos and digital cameras.
Only the TV category rose, with 10.6 percent of adults saying they planned to buy one this year compared with 9.2 percent in February 2007.
Shawn Dubravac, an economist for the Consumer Electronics Association, believes spending on gadgets has shown remarkable resilience, given all the factors weighing on the average person.
As gas prices rise, interest rates climb and unemployment increases, consumers inevitably made adjustments in spending. But Dubravac argues that consumers have continued to make tech purchases a priority.
In some cases, like Ahuja buying the new PC, consumers have no choice but to replace items like a mobile phone or laptop when it goes kaput.
Meanwhile, categories like flat-panel sales have held up because consumers have found them to be a good value because prices have dropped even as the technology has improved.
And by investing in a home theater system, consumers can cut back on trips to the movie theater.
"It's a no-brainer," Dubravac said. "They're going to spend $100 for dinner and a movie. Now consumers spend more on DVDs than they do at the box office."
Posted in Business on Sunday, March 30, 2008 12:00 am Updated: 11:48 am.
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