ST. LOUIS - There's a good chance of flooding on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers this spring because of soggy landscapes and a heavy snowpack in the upper Midwest, according to the National Weather Service.

"The stage is set," said Mark Fuchs, hydrologist for the weather service's office in Weldon Spring, Mo. "Even if we have a normal spring rainfall, it is very likely we'll have minor to moderate flooding. "

Major flooding is unlikely, he said, unless the "worst-case scenario" arises. Fuchs described that as a fast melting of snow from Nebraska to Northern Illinois combined with heavy rains.

"Then we would have major flooding on the Mississippi and Illinois (rivers), perhaps even the Missouri," Fuchs said.

The St. Louis area hasn't been splashed by major flooding since 1995, when the rivers produced a lesser version of their record-breaking deluges in 1993. The Mississippi hasn't been above flood stage downtown since May 2002, when the high level was 37.2 feet, or 7.2 feet over flood stage. Even that is 13 feet lower than the 49.5 foot crest on Aug. 1, 1993, when the river rose halfway up the Grand Staircase on the Arch grounds.

Fuchs said above-normal precipitation has fallen this winter across Missouri, eastern Kansas and Nebraska, and Iowa, saturating the soil. "Any rainfall we get now is going to translate into river runoff quickly," he said.

That four-state area fed much of the flood crest in 1993, although it was the result of weeks of drumming rains.

Fuchs said there is little likelihood of flooding along the smaller mid-Missouri waterways, such as the Meramec and Big rivers. But the Illinois River already has been at minor flood stage this month, and the rivers in northern Missouri are primed for possible flooding.

The area around St. Louis has been in drought for much of the last two years, but regular rains and snowfall since Dec. 1 have made for a wet winter. Since Jan. 1, St. Louis has had 6.5 inches of precipitation, or about 33 percent above normal. Fuchs said the rain "has ended talk of drought, at least for now."