SPRINGFIELD - Even before Tuesday's arrest of Gov. Rod Blagojevich, the ripples of promise had begun flowing ashore for beleaguered Illinois Republicans.
Although the washed-out GOP has weathered two rough election cycles since the demise of former party standard bearer George Ryan, political gridlock in a state controlled by Democrats was shaping up as a major campaign theme for 2010.
Blagojevich's blockbuster problems have transformed those ripples into a tidal wave.
"The Republicans have now an opportunity to win a statewide office that they didn't have before," said John Jackson, a political scientist with the Paul Simon Public Policy Center at Southern Illinois University.
In 2010, all of the state's top offices - now held by Democrats - are up for grabs. So, too, is the U.S. Senate seat once held by President-elect Barack Obama, no matter who holds it in the interim.
Names of potential candidates have been circulating for months. On the Democratic side, Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias have acknowledged they are considering a gubernatorial run.
State Sen. Mike Jacobs, D-East Moline, has floated his name as a potential statewide candidate.
Democrats mentioned as potential candidates for Obama's Senate seat include Chicago U.S. Reps. Jesse Jackson, Jr., Jan Schakowsky, Danny Davis, and Luis Gutierrez.
Among Republicans, U.S. Reps. Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam, both representing suburban Chicago districts, have been floated as potential candidates for the Senate.
Other GOP names that have been mentioned include retiring U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood of Peoria, former state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka and former Gov. Jim Edgar.
State Sen. Bill Brady, R-Bloomington, has previously said he's running for governor in 2010.
If a special election is held for the Senate seat, the dynamics would be vastly different from those of a full-fledged, statewide run for office in 2010.
A shortened special election in the first half of next year would allow a sitting member of Congress to seek the higher post without losing his or her current seat. It also could favor a candidate who already has a stockpile of campaign cash to spend.
Regardless of what happens with the Senate seat, retiring Illinois Senate Minority Leader Frank Watson, R-Greenville, said Blagojevich will be a big issue in 2010.
"George Ryan certainly was," Watson said. "They (Democrats) have to be held accountable for Rod Blagojevich."
For voters, that could mean a return to the playbook Blagojevich used to beat Republican Judy Baar Topinka, in which he repeatedly hammered her in television ads of being "George Ryan's treasurer."
Only this time, it will be Blagojevich playing the part of Ryan.
Although Blagojevich already was being demonized by many in his own party over his management style, Democrats are using the occasion of the federal investigation to further distance themselves from the man.
Nearly all have urged him to resign, and, in a further attempt to insulate themselves from the political storm surge, are talking about impeaching him.
The House and Senate return to action on Monday. Although the focus of the two-day session is to figure out a way to strip Blagojevich of the power to appoint a replacement for Obama, impeachment will dominate the discussion.
Jacobs argues that because both major parties have been hit hard by corruption scandals in the state's recent past, voters won't necessarily punish Democrats exclusively when they go to the polls in 2010.
"I think people realize this isn't a Democrat issue and this isn't a Republican issue," said Jacobs.
Jackson said a single event such as Blagojevich's arrest probably won't immediately turn Illinois into a red state, noting that two years is a long time for the political situation to change.
If Democrats break the gridlock that has halted many proposals in Springfield lately, voters' perceptions of the party might not be tied exclusively to Blagojevich.
State Rep. Roger Eddy, R-Hutsonville, said his party has to propose solutions to corruption that have teeth.
"A lot depends on if Republicans are thought to be serious about reform," Eddy said.
Posted in News on Saturday, December 13, 2008 12:00 am Updated: 11:19 am.
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