SPRINGFIELD - The man in charge of the state's checkbook is predicting Illinois could start the next fiscal year $9 billion in the hole.

At a time when the federal government bailed out banks and other businesses with $700 billion and might add another dose at least that large to a stimulus package, the Illinois deficit as projected by Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes might look small.

But observers say make no mistake, a $9 billion shortfall is a lot of money for Gov. Pat Quinn and lawmakers to deal with.

"If they weren't governments, they'd be bankrupt," said Anthony Liberatore, a professor of economics at Millikin University in Decatur.

Confronted with the number, numerous state officials have said this week they want to look at the state's $61 billion budget and find ways to cut things out before thinking about raising various taxes.

Liberatore says that might be hard, because some of the state's biggest expenses, such as paying medical bills for the poor and its employees costly pensions, aren't optional and can't be cut.

"I don't think you can trim your way out of $9 billion," Liberatore said.

For example, the entirety of the state's payroll, not including universities, is about $3.5 billion. So layoffs won't cut into the deficit much, and union officials argue state services are more necessary during an economic downturn.

"In a recession, you need more staff, not less," said Anders Lindall, spokesman for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees union.

The union also has opposed the closure of Pontiac Correctional Center, a move that former Gov. Rod Blagojevich's administration argued would save the state money.

But operating the state's more than two-dozen prisons costs about $1.4 billion this year - a small number compared to a $9 billion deficit.

The $9 billion deficit could be helped by President Barack Obama's stimulus package, perhaps reducing it to $6 billion for one year. But that money isn't guaranteed yet.

Libertore says the state might be able to get through the year without solving the entire deficit, leaving some of it to deal with when the nation's economy turns around.

If they want to fill the entire budget hole in the coming year, lawmakers might be left having to raise taxes, a problematic move during a recession, Liberatore says.

"They're trapped," Liberatore said. "State governments are trapped."