BLOOMINGTON - The latest report from the state's Drought Response Task Force has an ominous tone.

The report, issued earlier this month, points out January precipitation was above normal statewide. But forecasters see several factors that warn of a continued drought that could deplete water resources faster than in 2005.

"Statewide precipitation in four of the seven months since July, including January, has been above normal. It would be easy to conclude the drought is over," said Illinois State Water Survey chief Derek Winstanley, a member of the Drought Task Force. "Yet, evidence of severe precipitation deficits in much of northern and Central Illinois in March-June remained in January as low streamflows depleted soil moisture, and low groundwater and reservoir levels.

"We've had some recovery but nothing to breathe a sigh of relief over," agreed state climatologist Jim Angel, who also is a member of the task force.

Areas of Central Illinois continue to be classified as being in a "moderate" drought or "abnormally dry." Total precipitation so far in February is below normal in the region, and Bloomington-Normal is about 15 inches of precipitation below normal since March, which scientists consider the start of drought.

Bloomington's two water reservoirs, Lake Bloomington and Evergreen Lake, were down last week about 5.5 feet and 4.9 feet, respectively. City water director Craig Cummings thinks that combined deficit is probably second only to the drought of 1988-89.

Levels have rebounded more than 6 feet since in mid-October, he added.

January rains helped, and the Mackinaw River pumping station was pressed into service for about three weeks from mid-January to early February for the first time since the drought of the late 1980s.

Normal pumps water from an aquifer that is insulated from ups and downs in precipitation. Al Wehrmann, director of ground water studies at the Illinois State Water Survey, said the hardest hit area for ground water depletion is northwest of Peoria, where some rural residents are hauling water because shallow wells are running dry.

A test well operated by the water survey for a half century near Havana is nearly dry.

The only time it went dry was the drought of 1988-89, said Wehrmann.

No other area of Central Illinois has been as seriously impacted, he said.

But, Wehrmann added, "We are not out of the woods yet."

Though Southern Illinois currently is not considered to be in a drought, precipitation at Moline to the north is more than 19 inches below normal. Northern Illinois' drought classification was downgraded slightly from "extreme" to "severe."

Repeating the hope a month ago, Angel said, "What we would like to see ideally is a wet February and March, not April and May when rain could affect planting. You have to be careful of what you ask for. You just might get it."

The task force also laments this winter's lack of snowfall, which is a bank of moisture waiting to melt.

The report stresses several concerns that may signal a drier-than-normal spring.

w Historic evolution of previous droughts;

w Storms that drop moisture on Illinois often develop in the southwest where "persistent and strengthening drought conditions" exist from Mexico to Missouri;

A cooler-than-normal area of water known as a La Nina is developing in the Pacific Ocean.

La Nina generally causes a shift in the jet stream that alters normal weather patterns. It's impact in Illinois is generally to cause drier-than-normal weather.

"Historically, a La Nina that forms in spring has a tendency for most of Illinois to be dry," Angel said, and often are followed by above normal temperatures in summer, the report said.

Though forecasters are calling for Southern Illinois to be drier and warmer than normal from March to May, they are calling for equal chances of moisture or continued dryness in Central and northern Illinois.

Angel said that's because the current La Nina is considered "weak" and "wishy washy" and depending on which forecaster you listen to, the event will stay weak or strengthen.

"We are not aware of any indicators that point to any increased probability of wet conditions," said Winstanley.