SPRINGFIELD - A third-party candidate for Illinois governor will find out Thursday whether he'll be on the ballot in November.

But even if the Illinois State Board of Elections rules in Rich Whitney's favor, analysts say the Green Party candidate's effect on the results of the election will be negligible.

"I don't think there's going to be a lot of impact," said Chris Mooney, a political scientist at the University of Illinois-Springfield.

Under state law, third-party slates need 25,000 valid signatures to secure a place on the general election ballot.

The Green Party, led by Whitney, a Carbondale attorney, filed 39,462 signatures. The petitions were quickly challenged by Democrats led by Gov. Rod Blagojevich's campaign team.

A state election board hearing officer has sided with the Green Party, saying it has enough valid signatures to get on the ballot. The final decision will be made by the state Board of Elections.

Analysts say not only does Whitney not have a chance of winning, but it is unlikely he will draw a significant number of votes from either Blagojevich or Republican Judy Baar Topinka, the state treasurer.

"He may siphon off a couple of thousand votes, but it's not going to mean anything," said Roosevelt University political scientist Paul Green.

The most likely scenario is that Whitney will pull votes away from Blagojevich, said John Jackson, an analyst with the Paul Simon Public Policy Center at Southern Illinois University.

But, Jackson said it is too early to determine how it will all play out in November.

"It's going to be tough to decipher what the net effect will be," said Jackson.

Green agrees it is early in the election cycle and that Whitney's effect on the election could change between now and Election Day.

"If, for some reason, he gets hot and get 5 percent on a poll and he gets to participate in the debates, then I think he has a chance to do something. But, with no money and no publicity, I don't think so," said Green.

Whitney told Lee News Service Monday that he is not "delusional" about winning. But, he said he is hoping for a repeat of what a former professional wrestler did in Minnesota eight years ago.

"I think it is possible for a Jesse Ventura-type scenario to emerge here," said Whitney.

Whitney said he has the ability to pull votes away from both Blagojevich and Topinka because of his positions on a number of issues that transcend the traditional Republican and Democratic platforms.

Among them is gambling. He said Topinka's embrace of a casino in Chicago, as well as Blagojevich's proposal to lease the state lottery for schools, run counter to his stance that gambling is a bad way to finance education.

"There are many within their respective parties who are not very happy at all about the choice that has been presented to them," said Whitney.